OPEN UNIVERSITY MALAYSIA
FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT
BBEK 4203
PRINCIPLES OF MACROECONOMICS
GDP AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF MALDIVES
Name: Adam Khaleel
Lecturer: Ahmed Munawar
Learning Centre: Villa College
Trimester: January 2013
Contents
Executive Summary
This report mainly focus on evaluation on how GDP is measured in Maldives and the methodology used. In addition of these main sectors of the Maldivian economies which are affecting the GDP and economic growth of Maldives will be discussed. Also, the recommended policies which can be used to increase GDP and economic growth are given.
In the first part of the report will focus on a detailed description of the recent changes in the GDP of the Maldivian economy. This description will be based on the GDP, GDP per capita and GDP growth diagrams in the last decade.
The second part will explain the methodology used in the GDP estimation in Maldives with special reference to the recent changes made to the base year. The GDP estimation tables will be included in the appendixes. Also a clear evaluation on the main shortcoming of GDP estimation in Maldives will be discussed.
Third part of the report will discuss on the main sectors of the economy which affects the GDP of Maldives with the help of figures, graphs or tables. The main sectors include tourism, construction, fishing and manufacturing. In addition to this a brief comparison of main economic sectors between Maldives and Seychelles will be given.
Finally, main policies which can be used in the short and long run to expand the economic growth of Maldives will be discussed. In addition to this some recommendations given by IMF and my personal view to expand the economy are included.
Introduction
Background
Maldives is a country which has 1,190 islands out of which 200 islands are inhabited. All these islands are very small and there are 3 islands that have a land area of 3 square km. The Maldives population is 3145421 and people communicate in Dhivehi and English. The first language in Maldives is Dhivehi and the second language is English which is taught in various schools in Maldives. Maldives economy is generally depending on tourism, construction, fisheries and manufacturing (Shareef and Sodique, 2010, p.4).
The purpose of this report is to develop analytical skills in evaluating how the macroeconomic performance of a country can be measured using GDP. This paper seeks to outline the description of the recent changes in the GDP of the Maldivian economy and then goes on to evaluation on the measures and methodology used in GDP estimation in the Maldives. The discussion on the main sectors of the economy which affects the GDP of Maldives and recommendation polices which can be used to increase the GDP and economic growth of Maldives will also be given.
Recent changes in GDP
Maldives - Gross domestic product
(Graph of Maldives – GDP, 2012).
The GDP is the financial value of all the finished goods and services produced in a country in a particular period of time which is generally calculated annually. The above graph shows an increasing trend of GDP in Maldives from 1980 to 2011. The graph shows the GDP of $0.80 billion in 2000 and it decreases to $0.77 billion in 2001 but it continues to increase from 2001 to 2004. It decreases in 2005 to $0.99 billion from $1.08 billion in 2004 due to fall of economy because of the tsunami in 2004. In 2006 it continues to increase from $1.30 billion to $2.08 billion in 2010 but it again decreases to $1.92 billion in 2011. It is expected to grow the GDP in 2012.
Maldives - GDP per capita
(Graph of Maldives – GDP, 2012)
The GDP per capita considers the country's population and production. It can be measured by dividing the GDP by total population which will show the output for individual person. The above graph shows an increasing trend of GDP per capita in Maldives from 1980 to 2011. The highest GDP per capita shows in 2010. Although there is high increasing GDP per capita between 2005 to 2010, it is declining in 2011 because of fall in GDP and increase in population in 2011. Hence, the better understanding of GDP trend can be identified by analyzing both the GDP and GDP per capita of the country.
In the past decade before the tsunami in December 2004, Maldives had an average economic development of 7%. As a result of the damage affected by the tsunami around 62% of GDP have been affected and the economy collapsed by 4.6% in 2005. Meantime, the tourism sector has collapsed by 33% but there was quick recovery of the economy. In 2006, the tourism sector developed by 42% and the GDP development was 18% high in that year. In 2007, the growth was 7.2% (Ministry of Finance & Treasury, 2009).
The Maldives economic growth started slowing down due to the global economic recession in mid‐September 2008. However, the tourism sector improved by 3% in contradiction of the estimated 12.4%. Meantime, the fisheries sector has declined by 2.6% due to increasing the fuel prices and the economic development was 5.8% (Ministry of Finance & Treasury, 2009).
Evaluation on the measures
Methodology used in GDP estimation
Introduction
Normally, there are three methods for measuring GDP which are expenditure approach, production approach and income approach. Even though these methods are different, they will give the same value of GDP. Expenditure approach sums up the total expenditure in a country including individuals, firms and government. In the production approach, all the value of final goods and services from the various economic sectors are added. The income method adds the incomes that the firms pay to the households for the factors of production such as labour, land, capital and entrepreneurs (Samidi et al., 2010, p.21-26).
The macro-economic budget extrapolation approach is used for GDP estimation in Maldives. In estimation of GDP they are using different economic activities and the production approach is being used to estimate GDP in Maldives. The MEB approach is presented in the Table-1 which is the industry extrapolation sheet and Table-2 which is the macroeconomic budget extrapolation sheet. These two tables are included in the appendixes of this report for more information. The MEB method has been developed in an excel spreadsheet for the 1996 approximations which has developed in the previous years. The developments of estimations have prepared by the results of SES 1999 and first outcomes of pilot LES 1995 to 1997. The base figures in 1995 had been taken from the pilot-SUT for that year (Department of National Planning, 2011).
General procedures
The estimations have been included in a spreadsheet format which is linked to all the important short-term indicators. The outcomes of the calculations have been linked to the base year conversion from 1995 to 1985 in a spreadsheet. There are two common procedures which have been combined. The first one is based on the alteration in population and the second one is related to use of the average development rate for the reference year (Department of National Planning, 2011).
The first procedure is mainly based on the population growth estimations in the Statistical Yearbook. The second one is based on the variation of value added estimations for business activities. It contains the approximations made on the basis of population. The industries included in the tables 1 and 2 are the totals of different growth path and dependency. Meantime, the import and exports figures are widely used (Department of National Planning, 2011).
Industrial value added extrapolation
The model SUT for 1995 is the basis for the origin of the gross value added figures for 1995. The total of the GDP approximations by particular industries are given in Table 1 to derivate the total GDP for the country at fixed basic prices (Department of National Planning, 2011).
Macro-economic budget extrapolation
The MEB gives the particular methods used for the derivation of GDP at market price and gives estimations of GDP by final expenditure. The estimation for GDP through the production method by the industry value added extrapolation from the estimation for GDP base on expenditure approach (Department of National Planning, 2011).
To calculate GDP at market prices, the import duties and taxes on production are added and subsidies on products are deducted. These approximations mainly show differences up to 2.3% of the total. The current price estimations have been transformed to per capita terms using the midyear population statistics. The transformation to GDP per capita in US dollars was done by using the exchange rate of Rf. 11.77 per dollar which was remained constant throughout this period (Department of National Planning, 2011).
Changes in base year
The rebasing of national accounts series is replacing the old base year to a new base year to work out the constant price estimations. It is required to change base years more often in SNA 1993The change of base year differ from country to country. In some countries rebasing is done in every 10 years while other countries rebase in every 5 years. Therefore, it is vital to rebase on a regular basis because Maldives is experiencing huge changes in relative prices (Department of National Planning, 2003).
Base year 1985
Maldives first GDP series was based on 1985 prices by the help of international guidelines in national accounts compiling (Department of National Planning, 2003).
Base year 1995
The first time GDP was rebased in Maldives was in the year 2001 to 1995 prices. A pilot Supply and Use Table were improved for the year 1995 which was used as a standard for the national accounts estimations. The annual national accounts by industry were developed at fixed prices with base year 1995 (Department of National Planning, 2003).
Rebasing to 2003
The GDP estimations are currently rebased to the year 2003 which is after 10 years and this rebasing has taken longer time that has expected. The year 2003 was the latest “normal” year for which sufficient data was available and the next years had main effects caused due to the tsunami (Department of National Planning, 2003).
Changes from 1995 series to 2003 series
The 1995 base was for the first time based on a complete valuation of the economy using a Supply and Use Model (SUT). It has combined the outcomes of the 1995 Pilot SUT and the full SUT in1997. After several new studies the features has been improved and the 2003 SUT was constructed on a stronger database. This GDP rebasing is linked to the outcomes of the 2003 SUT for its base year. The database for the latest GDP series had developed as per compared to the 1995 series which has improved analysis of the economy (Department of National Planning, 2003).
Shortcoming of GDP estimation
The information for the estimation of GDP are taken from different sources such as financial reports of public and private Companies, government budget, large and small establishment surveys, household income and expenditure surveys, population and housing census, economic survey, foreign trade data, volume indicators from other government offices, balance of payment statistics etc. However, there are shortcomings of GDP estimation in Maldives (Workshop on National Accounts, 2009).
The challenges and difficulties in GDP estimation includes discontinued current price GDP due to high inconsistencies, inaccessibility of financial statements, lack of dependable time series data, absence of staff ability, insufficient information availability, lack of adequate experienced staff and high staff turnover (Workshop on National Accounts, 2009).
Some information about agricultural production in islands is not available to estimate the GDP in Maldives. Some farmers are not sharing their information with the relevant parties in Maldives. Also, the everyday reports of fish catch have been overstated by the boat captains in order to get license by having minimum number of fishing journeys and fish catch. The fish catch is generally stated in gross amounts without any adjustments on losses due to wastage. Currently there are no changes have been made to the account for the mistakes in the fisheries data (Department of National Planning, 2011).
The accessibility of annual reports has delayed for more than two years. The projected GDP figures of 2010 and 2011 remain to be based on short-term indicators (Department of National Planning, 2011).
Also, the last census was done in 2006 and the number of foreign employees and their income are unknown. Meanwhile, there are many people who have not paid the GST and the GDP is calculated excluding these incomes. Therefore, these problems are showing inaccurate GDP in Maldives (Department of National Planning, 2011).
Discussion on the main sectors
Tourism Sector
The tourism sector is the main contributor to the Maldives GDP which is around 30% in the past years. However, this sector is exposed to external and internal shocks. For instance, tourist arrival has declined due to the September 11th terrorist attacks and tsunami disaster in 2004 (Ministry of Finance & Treasury, 2009).
Tourist arrivals for the year 2008 were expected to grow by 9% but due to the world economic and financial crisis resulted to downturns in our main tourism markets from Europe. Tourist arrivals for the year 2009, was estimated to grow by 0.9% but it has been decreased to a negative 11%. On the other hand, the arrivals have increased by 1% and 2.5% for 2010 and 2011 respectively (Ministry of Finance & Treasury, 2009).
Between 2004 and 2008, above 60 new islands were leased for the development as tourist resorts and hotels but only 7 resorts were in operation at the end of 2008. In the year 2009 two new resorts and 6 resorts that had been closed for the renewal. Since there was decline in tourist arrivals in 2009, the capacity use was expected at 63.4% for 2009 which is decreased from 78% in 2008. For the years 2010 and 2011, 4 ‐5 new resorts were expected to be in operation each year (Ministry of Finance & Treasury, 2009).
The investments in this sector have also been discouraged by the high lease rents for the development of new resorts which made the investments in this sector unattractive. Additional restrictions are the isolated location of the islands and the lack of essential infrastructure such as domestic airports (Ministry of Finance & Treasury, 2009).
Construction Sector
Since 2004 the construction sector’s contribution to Maldives GDP has increased due to the recovery and reconstruction efforts after the tsunami disaster and the construction of new tourist resorts from 2004 onwards. Construction sector has been improving throughout the period of 2004 to 2008 by a normal growth rate of 22%. Due to the less availability of foreign currencies in Maldives has made it challenging for this sector to take advantage of declining prices of raw materials in the international markets. It was estimated that the imports of building materials are to fall by 38%. The chances for public private partnerships and foreign direct investments comprise the development of transportation network between islands. The real estate expansions focus on various housing projects with a plan to build 10000 housing units and 1000 luxury villas throughout the country (Ministry of Finance & Treasury, 2009).
(Ministry of Finance & Treasury, 2009).
Fishing Sector
Fishing sector has been a vital sector in Maldives which has provided employment and export earnings. This sector has accounted between 6.6% and 8.9% of the GDP during the past years. The total fish landing has dropped nearly 20% between 2006 and 2007. The total landings were constant in 2008 compared to 2007. Due to increase of sea surface temperature affected the collection process which has resulted in poor fish catch. It was assumed that there was a cyclical decline in every 3‐4 years (Ministry of Finance & Treasury, 2009).
The next reason that is recognized for the low fish catch is the rise in fuel prices and other supplies. As a result of rise in fishing cost, the owners were unwilling to take the risk when there was less chance to catch fish and to cover their operational costs. The skipjack tuna price has reduced from an average of $2,000metric tons in October 2008 to $700 or $800metric tons in December 2008. It had shown that the price was same as the prices of skipjack tuna in Thailand for the past 7 years (Ministry of Finance & Treasury, 2009).
Although there are few other major players from the private sector, the Maldives Industrial Fisheries Company (MIFCO) is the main competitor in the fisheries sector. MIFCO has divested its production linked to tuna processing and are moving to product diversification by focusing on aquaculture (Ministry of Finance and Treasury, 2009). Although, fishing sector contribution is decreasing, the fish canning industry or manufacturing is growing rapidly. The primary sector of fishing is decreasing but its secondary sector is increasing.
Manufacturing
The contribution of manufacturing to GDP has dropped from nearly 9% in 2003 to 7% in 2009. The major industries in manufacturing include fish processing, food, boat building, furniture, beverage products and PVC pipes. The fish processing is the main industry which is contributes to exports which is controlled by small and medium sized businesses. There is also a significant government involvement in this sector (Ministry of Finance & Treasury, 2009).
(Maldives Monetary Authority, 2012).
The GDP comparison between
The Maldives Sectors Seychelles Sectors
(Maldives Monetary Authority, 2008) (Focus: Africa, Department of Commerce, 2013).
Although the Maldives GDP is high compared to Seychelles, the GDP per capita is low because the population of Seychelles is very low compared to Maldives. Meantime, according to the above pie charts, the contribution sectors to GDP of Maldives and Seychelles are very different in these two countries.
Recommendation to improve GDP
Long-term policies
Supply side policy
Supply side policies mainly focus on improving on economy’s productive potential and its ability to produce. There are some actions that can take to improve supply-side performance of the Maldives economy.
- Better education and training can improve skills, flexibility and mobility which are human capital development. Spending on education and training will improve labour productivity in Maldives. Government of Maldives can spend money directly or provide incentives for the private suppliers to enter the market. The Government can also set and monitor the standards of teaching and can force schools to include skills modules in their curriculum (Economics Online, 2013).
- Government can help to improve supply side performance by giving assistance to local firms to encourage them to use new technology and innovation. This can be done by giving grants to the local firms (Economics Online, 2013).
- Since the privatization is helps to promote competition, the government can encourage privatization in the country. This will help to increase efficiency for the firm and to gain productivity for the employees. Therefore, Government can use privatization strategy to improve the economy (Economics Online, 2013).
- Improving Transport and infrastructure; the government of Maldives needs to improve transport and infrastructure in Maldives to assist future developments of the firms in the country hence this will help to reduce firms’ operational costs (Economics Online, 2013).
Short-term policies
The participation in broader and having regional strategies will be more effective to improve Maldives economy especially in atolls where resources are often stretched to the limit, the efficiency of expansion efforts can be maximized by the collaboration efforts by all the regions region in Maldives. Therefore, it is important to work all regions together to improve the economy (Reid, 1999).
Since the Maldives economy is becoming increasingly global, building the capacity to sell to world markets is more vital. Maldives government needs to assess the advantages and disadvantages in world markets in order to address the barriers to global marketing which will promote international business opportunities to the industries to improve the economy in future (Reid, 1999).
Maldives Monetary Authority can bring changes in the money supply (Monetary Policy) which will influence important macroeconomics variables like national output, labour force, interest rate, share prices and foreign currency exchange to stabilize the prices in the country (Samidi et al., 2010, p.6-7). However, according to Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad, the changing the monetary policy will not be so effective in Maldives because Maldives has a very small banking sector. It cannot be done earlier because it will not be effective to bring this change now. Therefore, the best way is to keep it as it is (Naif, 2013).
Fiscal Policy is focus on the use of taxes or subsidies and government expenditure to control the aggregated demand. The government can reduce tax on wages in order to encourage people to work and can subsidize the public goods to develop the economy (Samidi et al., 2010, p.6-7). According to Mr. Kuroda from Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Government of Maldives need to continue the efforts to improve its fiscal management by expanding the tax base, decreasing expenditure, reducing the debt and increasing privatization of state owned enterprises to improve the whole economy. Also, it is required to develop the private sector especially the promotion of small and medium sized businesses with more support by government in order to create job opportunities specially in the other atolls in Maldives (ADB praises Maldives’ climate change efforts, urges continued fiscal reforms, 2011).
Recommendations by IMF and Others
The following are some suggestions given by IMF in last two years. Firstly, IMF said that state revenue can be developed by raising the tourism goods and services tax (TGST) and bring back the deducted import duty (Jameel, 2012).
Secondly, IMF believes that the change to US dollar exchange rate by the government is without taking necessary steps to control the dollar value in the Maldives. Therefore, the fiscal and monetary policy must be strengthened to get a solution for this problem (Jameel, 2012).
Thirdly, according to IMF, everyone’s cooperation is very important to stabilize the country’s economy. The civil service salaries need to be revised and some taxes need to be increased (Jameel, 2012).
Fourthly, the IMF was confident that the Maldives can stabilize its economy in the short period by the tight monetary policy of the Maldives Monetary Authority to minimize the excess liquidity and the introduction of Business Profit Tax and a Tourism Goods and Service Tax in Maldives (Robinson, 2011).
Fifthly, according to Finance minister Jihad, in order to expand the economy, it is essential to find ways to increase the revenue and the number of inhabited islands needs to be reduced in order to resolve the deficit problem in the country. He also said that, the State financial responsibility bill would assist to decrease the deficit (Moosa, 2012).
Lastly, Indian High Commissioner Mulay said that Maldives is blessed with natural beauty which attracts the tourists and a huge proportion of Maldivians are educated which means that the country’s economy can be developed if the earnings can be retained within Maldives (Maldivian economy can improve if earnings can be retained: Mulay, 2012).
Conclusion
Summary
In the past decade, Maldives GDP shows an increasing trend but it is decreased in the year 2005 because of the tsunami disaster in 2004. Also it is decreased in the year 2011 due to uncertain external economic conditions. The GDP per capita and GDP growth rate show the same trend during these years.
The methodology used to estimate GDP in Maldives is MEB approach or production approach. This approach has two tables. It is represented in excel spreadsheet which has been developed in the past years. The MEB gives a detailed breakdown of specific methods used for the derivation of GDP at market price and estimates of GDP by final expenditure components.
The first GDP series to be used for the Maldives was based on 1985 prices. In 2001, GDP was rebased for the first time in the Maldives to 1995 prices. After more than ten years, the GDP estimates are now rebased to the year 2003. The data base for the new GDP series has been improved as compared to the 1995 series.
The challenges and difficulties faced in GDP computation includes discontinued current price GDP due to high discrepancies, unavailability of financial statements, lack of reliable time series data sets, lack of staff capacity, insufficient data availability, lack of staff with adequate knowledge and staff turnover.
The tourism sector is the main contributor to the Maldives GDP. The construction sector’s contribution to GDP growth has been increasing especially since 2004. The fishing industry accounted for between 6.6% and 8.9% of the GDP during the past ten years. Although, fishing industry contribution is decreasing, the fish canning industry is growing rapidly. Manufacturing sector GDP has declined from nearly 9% in 2003 to 7% in 2009.
Although the Maldives GDP is high compared to Seychelles, the GDP per capita is low because the population of Seychelles is very low compared to Maldives. Meantime, according to the above pie charts, the contribution sectors to GDP of Maldives and Seychelles are very different.
Spending on education and training will improve labour productivity. Government may give assistance to firms to encourage them to use new technology and innovate. Privatization helps to promote competition. Communities that participate in broader, regional strategies will be more effective. It is essential to have more recent information about the local industries. Maldives government needs to assess their advantages and disadvantages in world markets.
The state revenue can be improved by increasing tourism goods and services tax and restoring the deducted import duty. The fiscal and monetary policy must be strengthened to get a solution to the problems in the economy. To save the economy from falling into recession we all need to work together. Maldives economy can be improved if earnings can be retained in the country.
In my opinion, the problems faced by Maldives economy are not difficult to solve if the government takes necessary actions to solve them. The government needs to follow the advices given by the experts in the economic field. The government needs to have corrective action in the initial stage before it is too late. It is not only the government’s responsibility and everyone needs to work together to minimize the expenditure in order to solve the economic problems faced by the nation.
References
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